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View Full Version : It may not be very scientific....



MDawg
09-08-2020, 07:22 PM
Two comments - one scientific, one not.

One night at Caesar's Tahoe (yes that long ago) I was hitting a blackjack every time I threw down a huge bet. The pit boss by then knew me pretty well, and asked me how I was doing it.

"Well," and I was dead serious, "every time her brass name badge hits the light so that it flashes red, I jump my bet."

He just laughed. "Oh, so we're using SCIENCE to time our bets."

It seems that every time I'm in a big AMZN trading position and I miss the fill by a fraction - such as Thursday when I had the order in at 2411 and I got only a 1 share fill - the stock ends up tumbling hundreds of points. Exact same thing happened with a quarter point miss or so, in March, and AMZN tumbled big time then too. Same thing happened in December 2018, barely missed the fill, ended up stuck in some ridiculously large AMZN trading position for three months.

I mean it's not scientific, but it happens every time - barely miss your fill, and the stock tumbles.

And then, the scientific comment - is that even when this happens, the stock still comes back eventually. This is based on the history of the market. It always comes back to higher highs. And 15 years is like - long enough to rot out a corpse to the point of dusty decay, in this market. All these high fliers could be back to where they were in three weeks, who knows. If I were to guess, max pain, over all, is three months - the last time this market took longer than three months to recover was twenty years ago.
Actually that's not a very scientific comment either. But it is more scientific than looking for flashing name badges.

paradisesound
12-01-2020, 01:42 PM
Good story!